BroadChain has learned that on March 3, Wintermute shared its analysis, attributing this week's cryptocurrency market decline primarily to macroeconomic headwinds rather than issues specific to any single asset.
The initial wave of geopolitical panic was largely absorbed during the weekend sell-off. The subsequent rebound reflected a market view that Bitcoin's ~45% correction from its all-time high had priced in most near-term negative catalysts.
However, Wintermute cautioned that the market may be underestimating energy-related factors. Persistently high oil prices could fuel inflation, complicating central banks' efforts to cool prices and potentially delaying anticipated U.S. rate cuts—a macro environment that places crypto at a disadvantage.
On the funding front, ETF flows turned positive late last week, with net inflows surpassing $1 billion and breaking a five-week streak of net outflows.
While year-to-date net outflows still stand at approximately $4.5 billion, recent selling pressure appears concentrated among speculative positions. Long-term holders have not engaged in mass exits, nor have institutions significantly withdrawn.
Examining the current trading structure, institutional participation is notably weaker compared to when Bitcoin traded in the $85,000–$95,000 range. During that period, institutions showed stronger buying interest on dips. The current lack of robust institutional demand leaves the overall market structure relatively fragile.