BroadChain News, April 27, 14:05, according to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin is currently reported at $79,098, near the upper trendline of an ascending channel formed since the end of February. The surface looks bullish, but three on-chain signals indicate that US institutional demand is weakening, and the history of a failed breakout on April 22 may repeat.
RSI and price are forming a bearish divergence: from April 14 to 27, BTC price made higher highs, while RSI recorded lower highs. This is a typical bearish divergence signal; if the next 8-hour candle closes lower, the divergence will be confirmed. The Coinbase premium index has dropped from 0.038 on April 22 to 0.020 on April 27, indicating that US buyers are exiting. A similar situation on April 14-16 led to BTC falling from $77,089 to $73,820 the next day.
The fuel for a short squeeze is also drying up. Open interest has decreased from $34.02 billion on April 22 to $32.89 billion, and the funding rate has narrowed from -0.021% to -0.002%. The significant reduction in short positions means there is insufficient squeeze momentum for a breakout.
The key resistance level of $79,510 requires an 8-hour candle close above it to confirm a breakout, with a target of $80,000. If it fails, the first support level is $76,074, followed by $73,948 and $72,230 if it breaks below. $70,512 is the 0.618 Fibonacci support level; losing it would severely weaken the ascending channel structure.